" I missed this part of the thread - which 'coming shock' are you talking about? The XCIT deal? General market considerations? The split?"
The XCIT deal is OLD news, do you really think this stock price has not already built in the most optimistic of outcomes for that deal. And just what is ATHM buying there? The common answer is eyeballs. Surely a few banner ads would have the same result. When PSInet grew revenues from O to 50 million in Canada in 3 years it did so by buying up customers and key personnel from the competition. Not by buying a search engine where people with ISP's go to look for information unrelated to cable internet hookups.I have my own ideas on why ATHM made the purchase but they can't be confirmed right now.
The Split- oh, the great and powerful split that makes men rich. We have seen a lot of really dumb posts on this topic. A $10k investment pre-split is exactly equal to a $10k investment post split. Does anyone truly believe that a split in ATHM will make it impossible to decline below current market cap. Even if subscriber numbers are lower than expected, and profitability is pushed further into the future.
Market Conditions - what is this? I haven't been reading about this on this thread lately. Is this where things like inflation, interest rates, war with Serbia, earnings letdowns, foreign economic troubles, etc are actually considered. Those things are irrelevant as the Dow approaches 80,000. Or is that 8,000 .
I am not preaching doom and gloom. Just that valuations are ridiculous. Just that history should be respected. Just that all the riverboat gamblers who are chasing this stock up had better open their eyes to the downside risk, and admit that they don't have the guts to ride out a significant downturn. The same lack of patience to wait for buying opportunities on the way up will surely turn into panic-driven sell-offs on the way down. That is reality. Take a bite. |
