<< and the one I bet on hasn't even left the starting gate yet >>
Great way to put it. About all those other Net players, most are in the business consolidation and merger phase for now. Here, the cable companies and LDC's are organizing their administration and preparing for primarily infrastructure matters. The RBOC's are scrambling with their own merger plans just to keep up. The portal providers, like the AOL's are throwing buckets of market cap around just to get off of their "flat" web pages and to stay in the running. The events and hype in these matters is what is focusing the attention of the general media and Wall Street and is effectively merchandising lots of stock and lots of money in circulation.
On the horizon, near and far, are the glimmerings of what is to come. High bandwidth content providers like Monday's snap.com announcement, Sony's interactive game consumer device from last week's announcement, first mentions of video on demand in consumer surveys, underwritten narrowcasting, predictions of 2005 for bandwidth for the masses and so on. However, these are more the matter of content and not eyeballs and ears as the current news topics seem to portray concern about.
If I am correct in making the assumption that Mr B. is targeting the somewhat distant glimmer of content made available by some means of better bandwidth, then Ampex and affiliates are expecting to participate in some future wave of Net capability.
So, in a sense we investors and Ampex affiliations are "too sophisticated" for the present moment. That is, the big dumb market doesn't quite get it with respect to Ampex, so market interest is placed elsewhere.
As far as I'm concerned, this is fine for now. Relatively soon, and it could be the report of May or August, or even into next year ( not necessarily next week's 10K) the Ampex and affiliates package will become more defined and thus more available for merchandising by Wall Street and the banker / backers.
This should coincide with the final competition among the LDC's, RBOC's and Portal's, as they get beyond infrastructure and move into content. At this point, I expect that content will be thrown at consumers as give-ups in the much more serious competition of communications, advertising and e-commerce revenues. Storage and streaming solutions and focused media groups will be viewed as near consumables, that is, whatever works best, buy it and expense it.
This is not to trivialize Ampex's DST / MicroNet and the fine efforts of TVW and AEN TV (now with recognition) , but only to put it into perspective. When the biggest caps on the planet take off their gloves in the coming competition, they can buy in or buy out whatever they want in the space of an afternoon.
For now, Ampex is undergoing a consolidation at a higher level and is therefore continuing to be accumulated. There is no reason to undertake any serious selling, and this shows. However, by the same token, there is no reason to focus Wall Street market attention on the current Ampex context. It is both undefined and also pre-mature. When the time comes, miraculously, Mr B. will step forward with a great combination and the Market will take notice.
I do feel that many small investors will continue to be disappointed with the near term (next 6 to 12 months) pace and will vacate for more lively sectors or more lively Net crannies. This will mean more sideways drift on low volume and thus more accumulation. When the pendulum finally swings in the desired direction, advance will, like last time, likely be swift. It will also be justified by being built off a strong consolidation base being currently built in the 2 3/8 to 3 3/4 range.
Ed Perry
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