Everyone on this thread is assuming that Niles and other analysts are getting the inside scoop. Maybe that is true, and maybe it is not. Have you ever considered that many analysts work hard to build a network of contacts in the industry that feed them legal, but hard to get information? If MU tells them how many chips they are selling, that is illegal. If chip buyers tell him what prices they are paying and how many chips MU is offering to sell, is that illegal? No it isn't.
I happen to know for a fact that it is possible to get information that is not publicly visible without obtaining it illegally. As an example, recall that some posters on this thread commented recently that MU was dumping an unusually high number of chips recently. Take that loose information and quantify it, and you have the beginnings of good, honest leg work.
You also suggest that Niles got tipped by Dell insiders. In my opinion it is more likely that having gone negative on Dell, that Niles is in the dog house with Dell. Insiders feed him information so that he can trash the stock? Not likely in my opinion. It is more plausible that MU fed him good information than that Dell fed him bad information. It is even more likely that he got his information legally. You are making some very serious accusations, and you are probably mistaken. Clearly MU probably gave some "guidance" that shipments were up strongly, but if you had called investor relations, you would probably have received the same guidance.
Carl |
