*VDay - GSM Nazis capitulate* The lies, VW40, breaches the laws of physics, late to market, will fail under load, can't meet capacity claims, a fraud, will cost too much, near-far problems will be impregnable, CDMA Mafia, Ericy invented CDMA in mobile, Ericy invented soft-handoff, Qualcomm technology is not needed for VW40, Q! can't stop a whole industry, Q! is selfish, handsets are hopeless, GSM will always dominate, but maybe, with enough Chicken Wire and Bubble Gum, IS-95 will work in a half-baked expensive fashion being made to work because too much money has been poured in, but Qualcomm will end it's days in shareholder lawsuits and bankruptcy.
Well, happy 15th birthday Melissa [my youngest]. I had the enormous pleasure of sitting around the table with all my little darlings tonight celebrating a birthday while Qualcomm was announcing the details of a comprehensive settlement with Ericy following the WWeb agreements by the ITU at Forta Leeza for multiple options in a single WWeb standard.
This is one of the good days in life.
This is just so great! Hot damn! While I don't know the details, I have seen enough of the past achievements of Irwin Jacobs and the Q!sters to know that the agreement will not have sold Qualcomm short. They have not created their life's achievement to hand it over without all due rewards to a school of hagfish. They have worked for decades and decades, producing cdmaOne and WWeb as the final fruits [among other things] of their talents and efforts.
The fun had begun. Now the serious sales are going to happen.
On Monday, the New Zealand government will sell 2GHz spectrum in an open market. Several companies will want to compete in a wide open and profitable market. Telecom New Zealand [my guess] will announce before Monday that they will convert their analogue network to cdmaOne with an upgrade in due course to WWeb [either cdma2000 or Ericy's version of it - though both versions are now Ericy's]. They will do this to put the frighteners on bidders for spectrum. Telecom will begin conversion as soon as Ericy can get their act together. Maybe Lucent or Motorola will get the business if Ericy is too busy with orders from China and NTT.
Shortly after Ericy and others have started putting cdmaOne throughout China, Ericy and others will start overlaying GSM in Europe with cdmaOne and then WWeb in a year or two.
Q! will start banking big royalties and revenue from infrastructure ASIC sales to Ericy [and all the others who will all go crazy bidding for infrastructure deals around the world].
Then handset sales will take off like nothing has ever taken off on earth before. Qualcomm will be selling ThinPhones and ASICs for handsets in huge quantities. Other handset makers will be selling millions too.
Pinching myself! Seems real.
10 years ago I heard that cellphone systems were heading for running out of capacity and I thought a spot of Fourier analysis and coding each voice would do the trick with cutesy little chips. In 1991 I heard of Qualcomm by a stroke of luck. It has taken another 8 years but at last a comprehensive victory has been achieved.
The world is now going to go CDMA by Qualcomm.
Zhu Rongji isn't going to be ordering GSM. He wants CDMA and the World Trade Organization jamboree bureaucrats can get lost and get a real job. So can the Republicans who might worry that these CDMA systems might be used to strengthen China's military. Of course they will. Get used to it. So will soft toy sales to the USA. So will everything they do every day they are awake.
This is all as good as it gets.
Now Tammy can stop worrying about Singapore, which can call bids for cdmaOne and start installing it. OneTel in Australia can start figuring out how to overlay their half-installed GSM system with cdmaOne [feel sorry for THEM!]. China can start turning their 'trial' sites on and going commercial and order heaps of equipment to enlarge them as fast as they can. NTT can start installing cdmaOne to compete with the others which have a good head start.
The big question; when will the first overlays in Europe take place? I reckon sooner rather than later.
The chip rate is going to be fun. Who thinks there will be more than one chip rate? Haahahaahahahahaaa!!!! No way. Synchronisation will be in two options and so will some other bells and whistles. But quite quickly all will head for a single standard and it will look very similar to cdma2000. Vodafone/AirTouch won't be ordering multiflavoured WWeb. They want to rule the world. A BigMac is a BigMac is much like a BigMac in Hong Kong, Frankfurt or Los Angeles.
Okay, I have to stop.
This is so good!
Enjoy a GREAT deal of Gloating everyone.
Mquarkce
@499
200/2/200
Dow 16,000 Feb 2002
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$100 any time soon! But maybe even before 31 March 1999.
Heh, heh. Maybe even before @499 tomorrow. |
