Mark, here is an excellent point to get in, while personally, I am going to still stay on the side line, I think the downside risk is about $16, while $30 and a breach of $30 toward the end of the year is quite possible, leading then next year to the $50 to $60 area, which will be only a 30 to 35 PE on earnings in the $1.5 to $1.8 in 2001. $200? I agree with you that that might be a pipe dream, but who knows, in a very enthusiastic market with PE expanding to 50 on "next year's earning", and people bantering numbers like $4/share for 2002 (which will be twice my best dream), it could happen. I consider this a very unlikely scenario however. I think that RMBS has a much better chance of seeing $200 in the next two years than CYMI seeing prices above $100 in the same period.
Zeev |
