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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum
MU 228.50-5.6%3:59 PM EST
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To: Earlie who wrote (44248)3/25/1999 9:35:00 AM
From: A. A. LaFountain III  Read Replies (1) of 53903
 
Earlie: Semi revs in 1QF99 were $409.5MM, not $263MM (that was 2QF98)

Nonetheless, it's very apparent that the manufacturing team at MU did quite a job. In my model of the production/shipment trends, 2QE bit growth was 70% (exactly what they reported), but that assumed complete inventory sell-through. Mgmt reported some inventory build, so production was up more than the industry growth rate (which is what my model had assumed).

After listening to the conference call replay (I was in the Valley yesterday and was traveling during the actual call), I am still puzzled by the company's claim that they are the largest DRAM vendor and have 20% share of the market. When asked, they couldn't come up with supporting data, but stated that they knew the market better than the market research firms. In fact, their share for the quarter just ended looks like it was about 14% of the SIA-reported DRAM market. Maybe they get to 19% by the end of this calendar year if everything goes their way (which would still be quite an accomplishment), but they're no way near that now.

Steve Appleton also claimed the position as the #1 DRAM vendor. I'm meeting with someone from marketing from Samsung/Korea tomorrow and I'll be interested in his comments on this. - Tad LaFountain
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