RTev, I think the following holds true about where MSFT and ATHM are headed in this market:
1) We have no idea what MSFT's real intentions are with respect to this broadband market, except that MSFT will have to somehow get involved on some level with ATHM, AT&T as well as through RoadRunner if they intend on being the "Internet Player" that Mr. Gates has talked about.
2) Even if Comcast drops ATHM, 40% of HH's passed is still a huge number and MSFT will have no choice but to get in.
3) Armstrong has demonstrated the leadership qualities that I see in Mr. Gates. He is a true visionary and AT&T will be a leader in the broadband market in just a few years. And like Mr. Gates, Mr. Armstrong understands what AT&T's strengths and weaknesses are and will play his hand accordingly. Also, AT&T has now made it clear that they will not rely on LU for all their equipment, so that tells me Mr. Armstrong will make "BUSINESS" decisions that make the most sense for his shareholders, and not rely on traditional relationships. If this logic holds true, AT&T cannot help but work with MSFT in the future. This is a no brainer.
4) ATHM's management is top of the line, while RoadRunner's management is scrappy at best. This leaves little indecision at the end of the day as to how the ATHM/RR scenario will play itself out. At some point, MSFT, AT&T, TWX and the rest of the crew will make the decisions that make the most sense for their shareholders. My belief is that ATHM will be a big part of that, as well as MSFT.
Just my opinion...
Teflon |
