Howard, heck, know. Those stamps sometimes go off in your hands and kill your wife accidentally after you get a better looking girlfriend. <g>
I have lots of problems with Berkshire, the main one being Warren's age. Even if you like his investing style, he may not be doing it forever. I like his style for buying private insurance and furniture cos., but totally hate his public stock purchases. Admittedly, buy what went up yesterday and don't sell it has worked in the past, but I think it is a bogus theory. There were millions of people doing it in the 1970s and Warren is one of the few who got lucky. The others didn't. This doesn't mean he is not a good analyst. He is. But to make money in the stock market using his style is almost impossible and he has been the exception that proves the rule.
Also, Berkshire is not really related to the S&P 500 or any other index. They are way overweighted in fluff consumer co.s and financials and have next to nothing in fluff drugs or techs. <g> It may do better, it may do worse, but it will not be a good hedge. My guess is that after their lousy year, they may outperform the market over the next 12 months, but that is the old reversion to the norm theory and is short term in orientation. If Warren's returns are returning to the norm longer term, look out below. <g> |
