Yes, that is the question. It is also the reason that gold should only be viewed as a hedge, purchased when the price is low and held.
As I have mentioned, for gold to move, a substantial and credibility dislocation to the world will have to occur. Many believe a collapse of the worlds currencies is imminent with a flight to gold ensuing. Others believe that the y2k problem will be substantial enough to disrupt the modern infrastructure of the world. Then we have the standard sky is falling scenarios of war. In all probability none of these will unnerve markets in the near future to cause the flight to gold scenario. Central banks have more than enough resources to keep the house of cards going for a good deal of time. The y2k situation while serious, will not derail the world economy. Disruptions will occur and smaller countries may incur social problems, but the world will not end. Without a serious contender for US military dominance, I would not wait for a war.
What will be a credible catylist. Time, a substantial terrorist act, a serious political threat to capitalism, and any combination of the above. When? Between now and the next century. Every hundred years is good for a catastrophe.
That is the best I can do and since I do not have anywhere near 100 years left, it is not worth worrying about, much less spending my day looking up waiting for the sky to fall.
Ken |
