Is 50 tomorrow too much to hope for?
I think it is. My own anectodal evidence:
- In addition to the 2:30 massive market-wide program which I noted earlier, in which MU did not participate, there were noticeable buy programs today at 3:20 and 3:45. The 2:30 and 3:45 are quite clear on most of the indexes, the 3:20 not quite as strong.
But they were repeats of 2:30: Time & Sales for MU shows a 110K block at 3:23 that, I have no doubt whatsoever, was a buy generated along with all the other buys. "You want to buy 110K shares? No problem! Here you go, would you like fries with that?" No change in the MU bid/ask as everything else kept going up. Same at 3:45, there were two blocks of 25K that barely budged it, and for only about a dozen trades at that. Buying "pressure" has no effect now.
- As I posted earlier, I bought Apr 50 puts (at 4 when MU was 49 3/4) and immediately entered an order to sell Apr 47 1/2 puts at 3 3/4. When I saw MU fail to bounce with the rest of the market, twice, I called to do a straight cancel. Nope, I got filled ten minutes later. Yah, it was busy today, no question about that, but the only times this has happened to me before, it became clear very quickly that the cancel would have left me in a much better position.
But I ain't complaining. My 50 - 47 1/2 spread cost me a net of 1/4 plus two commissions, and I stand to gain 2 1/2 if we close below 47 1/2 at expiration. Plus, I'll take that impossible-to-cancel fill as a really reliable hint that we got plenty more downside tomorrow morning.
- Down 4+ on GIANT volume after "good" earnings is the definition of a failure. All the "good news" (!) is more than fully accounted for now. How many brokers remain even to re-iterate their sorry "buy" recommendations? The rush to the exits is underway.
Any bounce tomorrow and I buy another load of Apr 50 puts! |
