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Strategies & Market Trends : Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe
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To: Paul Berliner who wrote (943)3/25/1999 9:23:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling  Read Replies (1) of 1301
 
Paul,

Russia had a $5 billion trade surplus in January and February. That is $2.5 billion a month. Subtract an estimated $500 million in capital flight and Russia had net hard currency inflows of $2 billion. All of this before oil prices took off (oil is $3-$4 higher now). So we are talking currency reserves with annual appreciation potential at least at $24 billion dollars a year (at the current ruble rate). So, there is no real problem in plugging the $9 billion gap in the budget for foreign debt re-payment.
Currency reserves have been dropping due to debt repayment and debt REPURCHASING on the open market at 40 cents on the dollar (reported in Moscow Times). Considering the IMF is negotiating with Russia, it is a good negotiating position to draw down currency reserves as much as possible to show the "direness" of the situation. Once Russia gets the IMF loans, currency reserves will show very consistent increases.
It is time to buy Russia, not sell it !!!
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