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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 660.19

-0.8%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Vitas who wrote (9186)	3/25/1999 10:11:00 PM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (3) of 99985

Vitas: At this point, I consider the INDU to be the primary index. Below is the symmetrical triangle that it broke out from. We broke from the bottom of the triangle through the top in two strong days on decent volume. The declining volume through the triangle pattern gives it credibility. So we have a valid symmetrical triangle and a valid breakout. According to Edwards and Magee, under these conditions, the triangle will perform in its correct manner about 66 percent of the time. On strong breakouts like we had the move will often return towards the apex. The first stop would have been around 9625 at the tops of the triangle. Sometimes it will test there and then return on its upward move. Other times it will move down to the apex--here around 9450 to 9500 or so--before a decision is made. So we bounced at 9625 or so. 207.95.154.130 Below is the weekly INDU with its inverted H&S showing. It says 11000 plus. 207.95.154.130 It is supported by its colleague's inverted H&S below. You can see the TRAN continues to trend upwards. 207.95.154.130 I would prefer to see a real test of the 9450 -- 9500 area. If not there, I would like to see it flop around 9625 for a while. Currently, I am neutral and watching. The beginning of March was spectacular. I have time to watch.

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