I promised this thread a timely re-entry based on my fundmentals. This was my message on Mar 24 1999 10:43PM EST << however yesterday on opening I established very solid out of the money calls on TXN AOL YHOO SNE and some other stocks, I did break my discipline but the values were good enough and I thought with Abby's call it would just be matter of time that leaders will pick up strength..The party of bears had not even started that here they faced the first stumbling block.Put premiums were eroding like crazy,as NASDAQ and NDX roared up from bottom.>>
<<if SPM 1262 holds good enough if not I am going to ride this to 1238 and 1228 and 1202 an 1192, I will keep highlighting the internal signs where I will pick my beauties at right price. >>
The level held on very well, the 1262. The fly by night shooters and 1000 point drop predictors got once again on the chin, hard and solid as the bombs started dropping, the climax was over and market stabilised, the leaders were picked up cheap and my NDX took out 1992 level, .............
<<A move up to 10,000 is never to be taken without intermediate supports and resistance,we rode it carefully and dismounted at the most appropriate time. Anyone who forecasts without intermediate levels is a non-trader. Just follow the trend look at major indices look at macro economic releases and try to make something out of it.. Work within levels, ready to pounce and pick if upside buy signal comes, and ready to sell if important support like 1252 on SPC or 1262 whereI will not short even until 1247 to see if it is not trap and I will look at my other indicators.
Again working within your levels pays off, I have this 1262 on SPM and it will remain so asa support, I agree that 9750 is a resistance but if NDX takes out 2015 and stays above this 1993 level we will see some consoidation, Nekkei heavy selling was today averted, now the theater of action will shift to Europe and we are closely following it, we should see some weakness after all NATO action is going to affect European markets, but one needs to keep the faculty of judgement right we need to see that in case of Europe in crisis a rising $ may help US assets, and in assets the leaders become most sought after.
So keep a close eye on every action, watch out for $ strength a continued $ strength and falling Euro may help the market in a low intensity confrontation, although the case would be different if we have actual ground engagements, which is a quite remote possibility. Few cruise missiles and threat of action has I am sure shattered Milosivic, if some of his major command and control sectors are taken out I would think that he may come back to the negotiations table, sometime the will of negotiated settlement is construed as weakeness, it happened in Geneva with Saddam just beofre the war and it happened with Gaddafhi and now with Milosivic, all tyrants have similar spots andsimilar traits, cowardice and hiding behind shields is one, they just don't have guts to face the music.
Russia needs money and IMF is now demanding a political realism on part of Russia in connection with Iran nuclear ambitions, Saddam support and Milosivic support. Russians now see that NATO moving up to the Moscow military district this is the concept of encirclement they hate. Choices for them are limited , they would have to harness their Slav brother and in my opinion with the first resolved action taken by the NATO it would be foolish to expect that this crisis would now get out of hand, I think he teased the NATO planners and wantedto check the resolve of crossing the rubicon I would assume that some sort of agreement is possible now in few months, but I will keep a close watch a continued aggravation and sabre rattling may destroy the peace and with that the markets... Unfortunately when bombing starts the market tend to go higher.. >>
With a benefit of hindsight, how true the above forecasts have been, I wuld like the habit of posting my previous days posts on the thread to check the authenticity, this I do it every day without fail, the reason is simple my yesterday's thinking has some relevance to today. Moreover, if I am not able to do go back every day, something is seriously wrong with my analysis, if analysis is skewed no amount of 'market mockery or astrology or charltan techniques are going to save the naysayers from revenge of buls'. I only tell these critics of mine look at your posts and 'feel sorry and make me feel sorry too'.ggg market as I have said is not about who has a bigger ... but it is about rational evaluation of circumstances, cut the non-sense and get to basic you will be a far better trader.. I am happy for the move up and hope this takes us to new highs on NDX but keep a close watch on BKX DTX SOX PSE and last but not least 2388 on composite, try to lighten below this level and take sme profits off the table. It is important for me that Ihave this close above 2150 on NDx today, a second close before an attempt to new high..
I have some info that US is sending high level delegation to Russia to bait the carrot.. Will the crisis end I would think it would only impact the market big if Russia starts arming Serbia openly in contravention to Global Sanctions, that would be construed as a big negative, if you hear it just don't ignore it, I have until April in times like this purchased some 1200 puts for 5 and change..In case of aggravation one can see some real low opening so war in Europe for a intelligent trader is very sign of very high cautioun, I am maintaning the longs only to be taken out at break of 2002 or even 1998 but I will keep these nearly free puts to insure my exposure in case of huge crisis, although I discount it fully but ig insurance is available so cheap why not to take advantage of it.. BKX 855 should be maintained along with composite 2400.. |
