Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Gottfried who wrote (40907)	3/26/1999 12:29:00 AM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Read Replies (1) of 95453

Gottfried, Gruess Gott! OK here's my analysis of why there will be tighter natural gas markets in 2000 in North America. Right now there are 544 rigs running in North America. Assume all 544 rigs are drilling gas wells. OK- now assume each rig averages a well per 30 days and all rigs run continuously with no down time; then 6528 wells will be drilled in NA in 1999. Now assume that we are extremely successful and 80% of the wells drilled in 1999 find natural gas. Also assume that these are all pretty decent discovery wells ,each finding 3 billion cubic feet of natural gas or 3 bcf/each. Then we would discover 544 x 12 x .80 x 3bcf= 15.667tcf of gas in 1999... Right now we use about 17 tcf gas/year in North America.... I came from a Gas Processing Society meeting today. A Canadian economist spoke. He noted that Canada needed 22 rigs running full time in its NW Basins (Alberta/British Columbia,etc) to replace the gas reserves it either uses or sells to the USA. Right now only 5 rigs are running in the area.....

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