The Q1 growth last year, year over year was about 54%, 7 vs 11. The actual numbers can be obtained from the Dell web site corporate area. My projection for this fiscal Q1 is a about 19 cents per share, diluted. We believe the worst case will be 17 cents, or another 50+ % increase.
If this becomes reality, we will see a very brisk price increase. The number is based upon a SWAG that has its basis in the belief of the following items: 1: The sale of upscale servers is continuing to grow, they have higher margins. 2: The prices on these items are growing, the last one we specked out was $178K, One that I saw at the Microsoft show in Orlando 10/98 was in the $250K area. 3: The world growth in the PC area should show significant increases in all areas, save Japan and Eastern Europe where there will be less growth.
We find it interesting that DLJ's ( and most other brokerage houses)perspective for all stocks save Dell, is that earnings drive prices. We believe in that perspective as a result of history and experience. While DLJ was not incorrect on their 4th qtr sales forcast they were and I believe are off on there call for decreased earnings due to a lack of belief in the world sales and the upscale server market. The Dell severs are now plug and play for Unix and you may have the machines with Linux installed. This is the beginning of the Unix/Linux sales and real competition for the Microsoft operating systems. If you want significantly less downtime, NOW, Unix/Linux is the better way to go. |
