up 19! no up 20!
So much for the "random walk" theory! Remember that from B-School? Seems so silly now.
From an earlier post this morning:
judged on the basis of a separate model.
The Q's business model really does seem unique, although I wasn't around as early in the development of Cisco to compare. Our Q has now built a business on the cash flow from another business, and looks poised to begin repeating the process.
Strategically, they built a technologically solid business on a well-defined niche--Omnitracs. It provided some cash and credibility while they went to work on CDMA. Now, they've got CDMA firmly ensconsed as a cash flow generator. They can pour more money back into it, to ensure it continues to develop. And they've also got the money to move ahead in the other "core" businesses they mentioned in the press release--eg., Cinecomm and digital TV. This market promises to be a real blockbuster, and their timing is perfect--as over the next few years all the TV's in the US will convert to digital. And then it all coalesces into wireless video-on-demand, with true convergence having occurred. The consumer won't know whether he's watching TV or on the internet, or just watching a home movie!
Of course, the devil is in the details. That's what let CSCO get out ahead of COMS, ASND, etc. And so far, that is partly what has gotten Q the win. The Betamax example is always present. But, with CDMA the Q has avoided that fate.
This is great!
Best,
JS |
