That is a pretty good article.
Seven drugs in development:
1. VLA4 (Asthma, MS)
2. Amevive (Psoraisis)
3. Antova (Lupus, ITP, transplantation, eyelets, ?)
4. CVT124 (Congestive Heart Failure)
5. Gelsolin (Cystic Fibrosis)
6. Avonex (MS, Glioma)
7. Preclinical drug (?, ?)
Is that the list? Any corrections or fills?
According to the recent article you posted, the Amevive market was estimated at $3MM+ and the Antova market at $1.6MM. With Amevive due out in 2002 and Antova in 2003, you would expect they could power much higher growth rates than the Zacks estimates lead people to expect. Avonex growth should continue strongly for some time and the INFa royalties from SGP should grow as well. Of course, the current stock price is pretty fair right now!
I really see VLA4 as a real growth component as well. Would like to hear more from Biogen on its progress. But, I suppose entry into Phase II within 1 year of entering the clinic is more than you could usually ask of most clinical programs.
$117/share seems pretty high based on current statistics. Still, if the pipeline is realized, sales and profits might rise ten-fold from here over the next 7 years or so.
Doug Flutie is great! Lots of fun to watch and a good man to boot. |
