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Technology Stocks : Aspect Telecommunications (ASPT)
ASPT 0.00010000.0%Oct 22 9:30 AM EST
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To: Herschel Rubin who wrote (845)3/26/1999 1:29:00 PM
From: JAPG  Read Replies (1) of 2018
 
Herschel,

My EPS estimate is +0.05 $/share, quite different from First Call's -0.10 $/share. My assumptions are the following:

- Customer Support Revenue: increase of 4.2%. The inter-quarter average increase last year was 10.7%. I am being conservative here!. It is very difficult for a company, all of a sudden, start losing service revenue because it's a very momentous stream. It has been a well growing stream since they started this division. So, difficult to reduce sales from one quarter to the other.
- Product revenues: a decrease of 11% with respect to Q4-99 which BTW Aspect claimed that it was a bad quarter due to problems in the North America sales organization.
- My Total Net sales figure comes to $127 million. On the limit, I think, of what has been forecasted by Aspect: 115M plus/minus 10M. I really believe that this time this guys are being conservative, beats me why though.
- Keep same % Gross margin structure for both lines of product
- An increase of $2 million in operating expenses.
- No "purchased in process technology" charge in Q1-99
- Same outstanding number of shares as for Q4-98
- No legal or patent disputes surprises and thus no charge
- I am assuming that after a bad quarter, and negative expectations in the next two, Aspect's management does two things: tightens its belt and doesn't come with surprises, like increases in their cost structure.

Any other estimates?
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