ACTV will launch in this region with 6 million potential subscribers.
When?
Seriously, this is the single biggest question on my mind about this stock (I am long), and it has always been my biggest question on this stock. I went long back in 1996, lost a little coin, not too much, got out. Back then the launch was "just around the corner," always 3-6 months into the future. 3 years later, it's still "just around the corner," slated for late Summer/Early Fall 1999, but nothing is ever official.
I'm with Bruce in that we have signed alot of deals, but none of those deals guarantee that IATV will ever launch. The Liberty 5% deal was financing, like Venture Capital almost - they felt IATV had promise, but nowhere in there does it say that IATV will ever launch. The 5 Million or whatever is pocket change to them, so if IATV goes under because something better comes along for them, oh well. There was that TV Guide/Prevue whatever announcement but I haven't heard of that rolling out yet. Allegedly the IATV software is in every digitial box out there, and there are millions of digital boxes installed already, and no IATV running. We gave a demo last Fall; haven't we given demos for years? In 1996 they were fresh off of a trial run somewhere in Canada where they actually (allegedly) implemented the technology and let people use it and they loved it... what has happened since then?
Now there's all this HyperTV and internet/television convergence, we went so far as to change the title of this group to "Digital Convergence Software Technology." Bah. That's a ways away. Give me my old fashioned simple-minded interactive TV where I can pay my $10 a month to pick the camera angle for sporting events and pick what ads I have to watch, and give it to me now. Roll it out now. Roll it out in time for Baseball season or for the NBA playoffs or for the next Back Street Boys pay per view concert or for the Holifield/Lewis rematch or something. Don't keep telling me that rollout is 6 months away. Give me a press release with a definite date and a definite program that will be the first one aired. If it's 3 months or 6 months away, fine, but commit to it. The technology is there, the settop boxes are there, what's the holdup? Get it out to those who have the set top boxes, even if there isn't 100% penetration yet, show us it can be done, make the people who don't have the set top boxes bang on the doors of their cable company because they want this new toy too.
Again, I'm long (went long in Nov). But this stock is far from a sure thing.
-Fred |
