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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology

STX 262.56

-7.3%

Nov 13 4:00 PM EST

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To: DavidCG who wrote (7169)	3/26/1999 2:38:00 PM
From: Henry W Singor	of 7841

Dave: You are very adept at seeing the empty half of the glass. Here's the other half. 1) Seg didn't lose the business. Dell has been purchasing high capacity desktop drives from IBM for over the past year. 2) You have a short memory. Analysts have downgraded disk drive stocks quite a few times over the past several years. Also you will find that analysts tend to downgrade when the stock has already fallen 30-40% from it's peak and upgrade after it has risen 50-100% and is nearing a new peak. Why anyone still listens to analysts (except to do exactly opposite what they say) is beyond me. 3) RDRT's revenues will be down 10% sequentially. Their stock price is down 70% I think you missed it. 4) HTCH said they will meet estimates and they are reducing headcount because of productivity improvements. 5) The computer slowdown may be real. 6) The Bosnian crisis definitely is. How much do you expect to gain by shorting SEG at these levels. What type of value do you place on the stock. Also the market is a discounting mechanism, it looks at earnings six months out. I think you may have missed this move the stock is down 37% from it's peak already. Was it that overvalued at $43. It is trading about 1x sales which is pretty near it's recent low. I can't tell where this stock is going short term but at a certain level it reaches it's intrinsic value and you will see a lot of buying support. It is my estimation that we are very near that level already and because SEG is the dominant player in this industry it may never reach that level. People are always willing to pay a little extra for a leader. Henry

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