I can't believe you and Luc are rippin' on ahhaha.
Check out his PM to me on why we're in a bear (w/ permission from ahhaha of course)
...You must remember that a bear market doesn't mean a
crash. It just means you can't chase stocks and portfolios
do poorly --- worse than the market. You have to keep big cash
position and only have a few stocks. If the market goes up and
provides solid evidence that the bull is on, you have cash to
participate. You just have to be careful to not buy bottoms.
I'm an old pro at the biz and have worn many hats in it and
outside of it. Without going into a lot of complicated stuff I
will just say that good evidence of bear market action was
seen last month when the averages failed to plunge, there
was a shallow correction and then a run up to new highs
without confirmation. Today, the market was preparing to
tank and when it didn't, in the last hour it suddenly zoomed
back up. They call this the running of the shorts and it is
always seen in broadening tops. It is the equivalent of an
upside bottom, so there is no net movement for a long time.
You will see that this short covering action runs out of gas
quickly, but not before having done the damage to the
shorts. Then there is another weak sell-off. This action
persists and gradually forms a trading range with mild
swings up and down. They're tough to trade and they kill
buy and hold.
Meanwhile your portfolio is draining away as Abby Cohen
and other amateurs promote the bull market. They are
sincere in their belief. It isn't a manipulation. They believe
because they can't see any reason why not. That's the
challenge. It takes more than anyone I've ever seen or
known to get it right, but from my unequalled experience,
this top is as grand as the bull market that led here. It isn't
going to let anyone out. It will do whatever it takes to suck
you in or keep you in so that downstream you'll find you're
losing. That's what most money managers are seeing
already. The averages rise but their portfolios fall.
There has been little portfolio value add since July '97
which was the initial top of the bull market. A believer in
Elliot Wave might call it a fourth count. We have had
several other peaks. Apr '98, Jul '98, Jan '99, Mar '99.
What is happening is different groups are topping at these
peaks and so the bear market is distributed. The early
peaker groups in '97 are not reviving and heading back up.
They're locked into the downside. No one talks about them
or that. The techs topped in Jan '99, but they haven't got
far enough down yet for people to say, "oh my god, we're
in a bear market". Usually you don't hear that until people
have lost half their portfolios. So what you will see is no
individual stocks rising, only the averages!
There are lots of amateur bears and clowns like Prechter
etc., but none of these guys can give you solid arguments
of why we have entered into the mouth of the bear. I alone
can and have done so extensively all over SI. I have
received nothing but ridicule. That's another good reason.
None can refute my arguments because they don't want it
to be true. The bull is the way to easy riches and so
anyone going against that dream must be eliminated. They
think they are refuting the arguments, but they don't even
understand them. They don't have any knowledge of the
macroeconomic machinery which is only faintly related to
the movement of stock prices, so it is humorous to see
them spin. I have made great efforts to educate a few
about what is actually going on under the appearances.
They are slowly seeing the reality because the reality is
almost completely unknown. The universities are worse
than useless about this comprehension. This process has
been remarkably slow in contrast toi previous periods in
history and so people just won't accept what always
comes. Not surprisingly, they never did in the past. After all,
the majority have to lose and so in order to bring about that
reality, the nature of existence clothes it in an appetizing
way so that the foolish will buy and swallow trhe
appearances. Later everyone says, "how could we have
been so stupid". Actually, they sat that. They don't say
anything because they rarely admit losses. It is human
nature to boast about gains and deny losses. I think it is
important to admit your losses, because it helps you to be
objective about what you're doing. You won't hear anyone
on SI tell you about losses. That's another item of evidence
for the bear... |
