C-Cube's losses:
Malata is using both ESS and C-Cube for SVCD. They still make VCD players, which use C-Cube. Malata is a C-Cube DVD customer. It's a $5M to $7M loss in 1999, less next year.
Creative's current take rate on DVD chips is about 100k this Q. That's worth $1.5M this Q, $3M next Q and growing. $10M or more for the year, depending on when they stop taking C-Cube chips.
C-Cube wins:
The new settop wins really will add in the second 1/2 of 1999, and to all of 2000. A few chips ship in Q1, Q2 could be significant, a few 100K(over $10M). The year will depend on how fast the end users take the boxes. Philips could ship 200K or more to Media One(The old Divicom/US West connection.) Kirch could take 1M boxes this year, part from Philips and part from Nokia(C-Cube Customer). The value would be close to $50M. Germany has 35M TV households and serves another 4M in Austria.
Canal+ needs more than 2M boxes this year. In the past, Canal+ boxes were only about 1/3 C-Cube based. It could be huge.
Pioneer has yet to be heard from.
Zenith's deals with BellSouth and Sky should grow 40% this year.
Pace boxes in the UK(NTL), for Canal+, and still trying the US cable market. Big new customer.
SkyPerfecTV should add 2M customers this year. The only non-C-Cube box that I know of is Hitachi's. JVC, Sharp and Sony are all C-Cube.
The wins out way the losses and are targeted at growing markets. Settops are a key market, because they will migrate to inside of the TV sets themselves.
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