Tim, kick ass article on HLIT. We are slow moving here,its not a hype stock,but slowly moving north. Its a long road and a small wheel and it is gonna take a lot of turns to get there.
smartmoney.com
March 26, 1999
Betting on Broadband
By Alec Appelbaum
HARMONIC
THE Next Big Thing on the Internet seems to change faster than you can say Web portal. This week, it's the not-so-sudden realization that consumers want the Web to be fast, and that cable modems are one of the fastest ways they're going to get there.
Who among the cable companies is going to dominate? Who cares? Almost all of them are overpriced right now anyway. We decided to focus instead on the "enablers," the companies that will provide the technology to make the broadband revolution over cable lines a reality. There are the big brand names, of course -- Cisco Systems (CSCO), Nortel (NT) and even Lucent (LU). But much of the promise of these companies is already reflected in their stock prices.
So we looked for smaller, more obscure players who stand to gain as the cable providers upgrade their systems to provide the kind of streaming audio and video their users crave. One firm, Harmonic (HLIT), helps the cable companies do just that by developing technologies that increase the bandwidth over existing cable lines. At least that is how Harmonic is now positioning itself.
After nearly four years on the Nasdaq, the company dropped the word "Lightwaves" from its name this week to emphasize its push into high-speed voice, video and data delivery. But Harmonic isn't placing all its broadband bets in the cable basket. Last year, the firm acquired Israeli satellite and wireless-equipment vendor New Media Communication to expand its reach from cable-system upgrades to satellite, telephone and wireless networks. And earlier this month it registered a 2.8 million-share secondary offering, the proceeds of which the company plans to use to fund its expansion and pay down debt. With its new name, says marketing vice president Colin Boyd, Harmonic has a new "place where it can play."
That place should expand rapidly as the demand for broadband service increases. Industry consultant Kinetic Strategies forecasts that 1 million people in North America will subscribe to cable modem services by Thanksgiving, up from roughly 500,000 as of Jan. 1. Industry consolidation, such as the recently announced merger of cable players Comcast (CMCSA) and MediaOne (UMG) should help drive demand. Forrester Research analyst Tom Rhinelander, noting that Comcast and MediaOne own sizable chunks of cable-modem leaders At Home (ATHM) and Road Runner, respectively, predicts flatly that the two cable-modem players will unite their marketing and technology investments. If they do, Boyd argues, "pure demand" will flow to Harmonic's bandwidth services.
How does Harmonic fit in? The company has developed technologies that increase the bandwidth over fiber-optic lines, freeing more information to travel at once. Its TRANsend product allows manipulation of data from satellite, ISP or cable source, letting a provider tinker with channel offerings to narrowly defined target audiences. One application that gets Boyd excited is video-on-demand, a service that lets cable subscribers order programs at any time. By storing video in the "headend," or command center of a network, Boyd claims Harmonic can make these services more efficient for the cable company than they used to be when video signals hogged bandwidth along the network.
The rapid acceptance of those technologies, and a successful secondary offering, should help Harmonic overcome its recent rocky financial history. After a profitable 1997, the company lost $21.5 million in fiscal 1998 on $83.5 million in revenue, largely because of one-time $14 million acquisiton charge and slowdown in Asian sales. But like any Internet-related firm worth its salt, sales have been growing. Analysts expect Harmonic's earnings to increase 165% this year over last and 96% in 2000. The company's stock has surged 51% since Dec. 30, but given those projections, still looks relatively cheap at 24 1/8.
The problem for investors -- and for Harmonic itself -- is that the company is no heavyweight. "From a fiber-optic standpoint, it's done quite well," says Michael Harris, who runs Phoenix-based Kinetic Strategies. He says Harmonic may be able to parlay its installed base into "overselling in other access types," but only if it skirts the "eight-ton gorillas" -- chiefly Nortel, Lucent and Cisco -- who can handily expand bandwidth for data networking. The real question is whether there'll be enough demand to trickle down. If the recent frenzy of deals and interest in broadband is any indication, the answer to that question is clear.
Tim |
