CCSI Market Value as per today closing prices: $115,650,000.00
($7.5 closing price x 15.42 million shares).
If P/E of 30, CCSI needs earnings of $3,860,000 this year to justify current market value.
Assume a 50% margin on gross sales (generous) and they need at least
$7,720,000 in sales this year along to justify current market value.
Divided by 4 quarters: $7,720,000/4 = $1,932,000 in sales for first quarter of 1999 to justify current market price.
Imagine 50% coming from sales of the Colormate devices, and 50% coming from the Lensettes (reasonable).
$1,932,000/2 = $970,000
Colormate at $4,000 each: $970,000/$4,000 = 243 machines need to be sold in 1st quarter 1999.
Lensettes at $10 dollar each: $970,000/$10 = 97,000 tests to be sold in 1st quarter 1999.
Let's allow the first quarter to be half of that (the tests will be repeat sales and will build up with each quarter into the future) assume Wall Street is as generous with actual results as has being in the past with just the idea of the future (at close to $18 dollars per share, the peak market value of CCSI was a whooping $270 million)
CCSI needs to sell 122 Colormate in 3 months, about 1 per day to barely justify current prices.
If they sell 1000 Colormates they are in great business. 500 is very good. Less than 250....
Give some extra value for the rest of the company, and build up a model. |
