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Strategies & Market Trends : Bankruptcy Predictor Model

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To: Razorbak who wrote (186)	3/27/1999 1:01:00 AM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (1) of 477

Specific companies: GHV & VC both operate nursing homes, medical facilities and such and both have been whacked hard in the market due to reduced funding from a change in medicare. I would have thought GHV the stronger based on value of shares and bonds, but z score came out ~.8 I haven't calculated EV but one class of bonds was trading around 85 for 9 7/8 ...not exactly circling the drain and the shares have held up much better than VC..in fact were up 33% today on no news. VC on the other hand has seen shares drop below one recently [from 12 7/8 yearly high] before bounce back to 1 5/16 while 8 7/8 notes were quoted on 3/22 at 15-20. Again I haven't run the EV, but I'd be surprised if it wasn't below BVD. Yet z ~1.8 marginal, to be sure, but still I think a different message than the EV-BVD will tell when it's calculated. [I adjusted the z score to reflect more current values where possible, but still very similar to unadjusted]Complicating the issue is that each of these companies is leasing space form REIT's that were spun off from the respective companies. Should these lease arrangements be considered some form of debt and be accounted for? Here's a link quote.yahoo.com

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