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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Dale Baker who wrote (17902)3/27/1999 1:27:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus  Read Replies (2) of 18691
 
Dale, I never said Milosevic wasn't a bully (actually much too mild a term for him), just that we may come out of this looking like one too. I stand by my position that better leadership here, through the last several years of ethnic violence in the region, might have found a way to resolve this diplomatically or, failing that, build a broader consensus rather than going in without UN authority or a clear case that this civil war threatens US and NATO interests (i.e. solid reasons not to need UN authority). No matter who is right or wrong within Yugoslavia, we are intervening in a civil war. If we are doing so on moral grounds, to protect the Albanian/Kosovar majority, that may be a worthy cause, but what exactly is our objective and can we accomplish it with air strikes?

And, if we are right to intervene here, where next? Will we go carve a Kurd homeland out of Iraq, Iran and Turkey? Will we bomb China to save Tibet?

So far, we seem to have accomplished little other than giving the Serbs an excuse to be even more brutal in Kosovo. We've been blowing the crap out of Iraq for some time now and we don't seem any closer to getting rid of Saddam. Why would we think air strikes alone will stop Milosevic? Will we send in ground forces? Will we supply the KLA? Or, will Clinton just decide in a few days that we've accomplished some phantom objective, declare our message sent and abandon those he claims to be helping?

Perhaps everyone thought Milosevic was bluffing (or that he thought we were) and would back down. Maybe that will happen, but so far it doesn't look like it. What next?

Bob
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