Hi Glenn, I have found your numerical analysis of ONEM to be very helpful, like this info you posted on Kimberly's thread... Based on my calculations, ONEM may have a current value per share of $37.70 to $60.32... if you have a chance to check my logic on this and comment I would sincerely appreciate it! Thanks...
To: Kimberly Lee (257 )
From: Glenn Petersen Thursday, Mar 25 1999 8:44AM ET
Reply # of 466
ONEM has been priced at $22 and the offering has been bumped up to 8,500,000 shares. Bob Dole was named as a Board member yesterday. At the IPO price, each of their customers is being valued at approximately $1,400. Other public ISPs are being valued in a range of $2,000-3,200. The pro forma 1998 numbers include goodwill amortization expense of approximately $70.0 MM; they will be writing off over $200.0 MM in goodwill over a three year period. Steve Smith, the CEO, is scheduled to appear on Power Lunch today.
The $1400 value you assigned, if I am doing the math correctly, is # of potential shares outstanding, (including overallotment shares) 21, 135,244 * $22 offer price / # subscribers (331,800 as of 12/98) = $/subscriber ($1400)...
In reading through the prospectus, it looks like they have had a 20% growth in # subscribers for each of the last eight Q's (page 31). If that holds true, then the current # of subscribers should be 398,160 on 3/31/99, and 477,792 on 6/30/99, for respective $ per subscriber of $1167 (3/31) and $973 (6/30). I know this is a lot of ifs, but I am trying to get a handle on valuation, based on these projected numbers.
If competitors value subscribers at $2000 to $3200, then wouldn't the ONEM shares be undervalued by 71% currently @ $22.00 IPO price, and couldn't you assign a current value (3/31) of $37.70 per share, based on the $2000/subscriber? ($2000/1167= 1.71... 1.71 * $22 = $37.70) And on the high end, using the same math... $3200/1167 = 2.74 * 22 = $60.32...
I am NOT a mathematician, as a matter of fact my head is swimming from all these numbers, and I may have done this TOTALLY wrong... I would really appreciate it if you would look this over and give me your opinion... Thanks!!!
Kathy |
