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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues

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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (5084)	3/27/1999 5:45:00 PM
From: Ken	Read Replies (1) of 9818

An aggregate look at the Y2K Experts rating at Russ Kelly's famous Y2K Experts rating page which is at russkelly.com. I took the below people's latest rankings (some have a range, such as myself) and create averages for all. The scale of 0-10 is not explained at Russ's site, but most Y2K researchers are familiar with the 0-10 scale used by the Washington DC Y2K SIG email survey done twice in 1998 and explained in Bruce Webster's 1999 book, The Y2K Survival Guide (does anyone have a URL for this scale/WDCY2K survey)? It's probably buried in Bruce's book. I used the below analysis in a slide I'm using henceforth in my speeches. --Roleigh >From russkelly.com (plus using Excel to gather averages) - the description of the scale is from Bruce Webster's book (see above). Low High Average Joel Ackerman 8.2 8.2 8.2 Dave Bettinger 7.4 7.4 7.4 Joe Boivin. 10.0 10.0 10.0 Dr. Douglass Carmicha 6.0 8.0 7.0 Dennis Elenburg 7.1 7.1 7.1 Thierry Falissard 8.5 8.5 8.5 Mark Frautschi 6.2 6.2 6.2 Karl Feilder 7.0 7.0 7.0 Dr. Reynolds Griffith 7.2 7.2 7.2 Cory K. Hamasaki 7.0 7.0 7.0 Dr. Leon Kappleman 6.0 6.0 6.0 Russ Kelly 8.5 8.5 8.5 Roleigh Martin 5.5 9.0 7.3 Michael Maynard 6.0 6.0 6.0 Dr. Gary North 10.0 10.0 10.0 Scott Olmsted 8.7 8.7 8.7 Charles Reuben 5.5 5.5 5.5 Alan Simpson 5.5 5.5 5.5 Harlan Smith 8.2 8.2 8.2 Timothy J Wilbur 9.0 9.0 9.0 Ed Yourdon 8.5 8.5 8.5 Nicholas Zvegintzov 1.0 1.0 1.0 AVERAGES: 7.1 7.4 7.3 Scale used in March 3, 1998 WDCY2K Email Survey of 700 listserv members, reproduced in Bruce Webster's book, The Y2K Survival Guide, page 401: 0 No real impact 1 Local impact for many enterprises 2 Significant impact for many enterprises 3 Significant market adjustment (20%+ drop); some bankruptcies 4 Economic slowdown; rise in unemployment; isolated social incidents 5 Mild recession; isolated supply/infrastructure problems; runs on banks 6 Strong recession; local social disruptions; many bankruptcies 7 Political crises; regional supply/infrastructure problems and social disruptions 8 Depression; infrastructure crippled; markets collapse; local martial law 9 Supply/infrastructure collapse; widespread social disruptions and martial law 10 Collapse of US government; possible famine

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