Dear Tero, I've never been one to pretend that emotions aren't part of investing or anything else. I must admit to childish cackling and youthful leaps of joy [not too high as one can injure onself after a certain age]. People say keep emotions out of investing, but that is fooling oneself. Everything we do is emotionally driven and controlled by brainpower. So I'm perfectly happy to give vent to a bit of gloating and Hah! Hah! Hah! Not towards Nokia of course since I can't recall anything particularly unethical they did - they stuck pretty much to getting on with the job and doing a great job for their customers.
Now they are perfectly positioned to do very very well in The New Paradigm. The New Paradigm can best be studied by studying Qualcomm and CDMA.
Just a piece of advice; don't be misled by a few price moves which are mostly controlled by quite ignorant investors. The probable outcome has been obvious for many months. Q! stock is up two and a half times from the 1997 post Zenit blues so the gain was gradual. Check Ericy moves over the past year.
Sure the market capitalisation of Ericy moved more than Q! on that day. But that is a tiny part of the whole story and the final judgement by the share buying public is years rather than weeks away and that will be made on the basis of profits reported by the companies as CDMA develops.
You asked: "I'd like to here what tortured logic can turn this into a victory for IS-95 - the future of 3G is now controlled by the co-creator of W-CDMA."
Tero, you can't really be serious. Ericy said years ago that they would deny their customers a request for IS-95. Now they have bought a licence to produce it and also a whole factory which is already doing it. In fact that is about all that factory is producing. Sure they are gearing up for cdma2000 but Ericy denied they wanted that either.
Tero, the whole world is now going to go CDMA by Qualcomm [once the legacy GSM, TDMA, PHS, analogue systems can't be kept running any longer]. Sure, there will still be a bit of GSM expansion. But there will be a lot of plans being revised right now [well, the public aspect of those plans anyway because the writing has been on the wall long enough that private plans will have adapted].
Tero, tomorrow there is a spectrum auction in NZ. Nobody is going to consider putting in GSM. Telecom will be talking to Ericy about getting cdmaOne to replace their analogue network which is quickly losing customers to Vodafone's GSM network. Ericy is going to sell a LOT of cdmaOne which is IS-95 based. They will sell it in China, Japan, New Zealand, Australia and most other places.
That is a complete victory for IS-95. Did you notice the royalty rate? That is a rhetorical question so you don't need to feel bad about not answering. There had been discussion of 1,2,3 or4% as the royalty rate. It is 6% or so, same as IS-95. That is a comprehensive victory.
Anyway, I'll be looking forwards to reading your review of the whole situation and how Nokia's great GSM handsets are going to roll back the CDMA tsunami.
Maurice |
