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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 19 4:00 PM EST

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To: StockOperator who wrote (9325)	3/28/1999 5:01:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (4) of 99985

>>There really are only three possibilities. Breakout - breakdown - Or the market can continue to consolidate sideways until there's enough momentum to push it higher. << i wish I could help but I am totally befuddles this weekend. I see signs of a total break down coming and then I see signs of breakout a few charts later. To be honest, I expect a lot of sideways on the indexes but some new leadership soon that will catch many off guard. INTC is still pointing at a bear wedge and I don't feel that EMC and AOL can carry the NASDAQ much farther as their rubber bands are stretched about as far as they can go without breaking. As usual, I have found a few oddities. The PC sector is getting hammered for reasons I totally agree with and have been saying for a long time. On the other hand, I have buy signals on CPQ that based on FA make no sense what so ever. Is this like what I saw on the oil chart or a false alarm just because it has dropped so much. Who knows. Many that I respect including one of the paid cycle callers that a friend of mine thinks is always right, see a down cycle starting in early April. My charts just don't show a large drop coming for the most part since the indicators are getting back to mid range. If anything, I see a good chance for a last gasp rally starting around mid to late April as I have stated and see no reason to change my tune yet. I am afraid to go long yet worried about going short and this is not normal or a comfortable position. I may change my mind tomorrow after I have more time to look at the charts but the way I see it right now, this is more like June or early July last year than anything else. The FA is lousy, the warning signs are there but the market wants to go up and it is going to do so even if it has to break down later and drop harder for the effort. Good Luck, Lee

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