John, I hope I am wrong, as much as anyone else does!
If I am, all that happens (same with all the other 'extremists'), is hearing laughs, being out monies for emergency prep assets (which can be donated to charity if not needed), and wasting a lot of time.
If the issmes of the world are wrong, they are not just 'toast', but 'burnt toast'!
Even in my extremist market and economic predicts, I have far more to lose than most- I have substantial amount of stock that is both restricted and subject to lockup k.
I fear that by the time that all such are freed-up, they will be virtually unsellable, due to market melt-down/collapse prior.
In fact, I fear the meltdown at any time now, but almost certainly by July. The one-and only- major point of optimism I have for the market will be the gigantic spike/s when overseas markets (including European) are drained in favor of a literal flight to US markets, which will be the last (but temporary) 'safe (sic) haven' for investments!
I believe the key factor in when the market meltdown starts will be whether major panic selloffs start overseas first, or some factor, any one of a number of wildcards, causes a panic selloff here first.
I have long predicted that the tripwire toward market meltdown/runs on US banks, will be Japanese runs on their banks (their interest rates are so low, they have little incentive to keep monies in banks/bonds) and/or offloading US paper-they hold enough to alone devastate our economy by such negative fiscal behavior. Fortunately, they are finally taking positive action re: their economy, BUT, their money centers, the world's largest, CANNOT possibly be Y2K compliant in time. As soon as enough there realize that, along with miniscule interest rates, they will have little incentive to keep much/most of their monies in the bank vs. 'safety' of physical possession. WATCH JAPAN CLOSELY!
Runs/major market selloffs/paper unloading there will quickly create panic reactions here!
issme and his ilk who are in equities/mutuals, will find no buyers in time, as they will see market meltdowns as 'corrections'!
Is 11,000 possible this year? yes, and higher. Is 2,000 possible? Count on it. Within 12 months, that may even be best-case senario (for reasons few want to hear).
But, John, you are the analyst, not me....what's your predict?
Where do you see gold stocks, short and medium term? |
