Good points, but most are based on dreams, IMHO. Not that there is anything wrong with that, but I dream when I go to Vegas also. ;)
BTW:
I'm still tweaking the model, and I hope to post very late tonight. The most alarming thing that it shows is this death spiral that is occurring with ZIPs. It is amazing. For example:
Q4 1997: ZIP REVS = 407m = (2,646 drive units) + (11,825 disk units)
Q4 1998: ZIP REVS = 353m = (3,323 drive units) + (17,500 disk units)
** Above is real data **
ZIP units up 20% Y/Y, ZIP disks up 47%!!! Y/Y, but revs down 13%!
AND overall earnings down 50% over last year. This is the data I
have in mind when I say there is no evidence of better than 1:1
elasticity yet. The $99 point is another dream, but we'll see, as
you say.
Projecting this out doesn't help much...
CLIK!
Digital Cam market is expected to be 10m units by 2000/2001. Even with 10% penetration (nearly impossible, since ZIP hasn't hit 8% yet, even after 3 years) This is only 1 million units. at ASP of $150, this is 150m in revenues in $2000, or 37.5m per quarter.. ABOUT THE SAME AS DITTO was. This is a drop in the bucket...
kp
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