Darkie, 'ol pal, please don't try to infer into posts what doesn't exist.
You state: that I, among others, "are very worried and prone to periodic bouts of severe depression and expressions of panic" ... etc... regarding Valence.
FWIW, I am neither depressed nor panicked about Valence. I bought some last week out of my IRA (those darn Netegrity profits...) at $ 5.75 and will buy a substantial bit more if the stock reaches that level or lower again.
I do not expect a contract by 3/31 - but I do expect an announcement soon thereafter - by the end of April or mid-May at the latest. And since I believe the company has debt capacity available through June, the company will succeed in Q2 1999. To me, it remains a question not of "IF" but "When."
Now all the rather interesting discussion about the Altman Bankruptcy
says to me one thing: if the company can't get a contract by the end of June and has to refinance, it will be very expensive. Then one has to assess the cost of that financing versus the opportunities of the company to get their production lines going or sell their technology. I believe Dawson and the other are confident and betting on success prior to 6/30/99. And if you don't buy Dawson's capability or the odds of performing, then don't buy or sell the stock.
I would urge skeptics to stay out of the stock until a contract is announced. There will be plenty of time to make money on Valence in that scenario. And those who want to short, please do it.
But, Darkgreen, I remain very confident in near term success - so don't characterize me as either depressed or panicked about Valence. |
