While I can't say one way or the other whether the math holds, apart from the glitch where you misapply the "double counting" to the individual trades instead of the overall volume, it really doesn't matter because it has nothing to do with my argument anyway.
You may look askance all you wish at how 4000 or 6000 or 13000 or however many shares managed to bring VLNC down so many ticks, but the fact is it happened, and would have happened regardless of where the sales came from.
So the bid was getting whacked, as you say, but the motivation remains to be determined. One possibility that we can eliminate is a group effort on the short side. As Mama Bear pointed out earlier, both sections of the downturn had long durations without an uptick. Which means if it was short selling it was either one or two huge orders or the market maker at work.
This is where my point comes in. If the object was in fact to paint the tape as red as possible, why would the hypothetical seller put himself in a position where he would have to give the stock nearly 25 minutes to get itself back up and neutralize his efforts?
As far as my counter-scenario goes, whether the selling was 25K, 20K, 15K, 10K *whatever*, it was enough. Don't get hung up on the number I gave, that was just for purposes of illustration. I see no evidence from that log that indicates that the selling need have been from the short side, and at least some indication to the contrary.
At any rate we should know in about 9 1/2 hours. |
