INDEX UPDATE
=======================================
We keep on hearing over and over that the deteriorating A/D is mow being discounted by many bullish analysts, based on the fact that it has been this way for so long(so far 11 months).
I have heard from different sources that a deteriorating A/D line could last up to 16 months before a strong correction. Also I noticed per the P/E curve chart(previous post) that once the P/E curve peaked it could take up to 2 years before the market corrects. And history shows that the market has always corrected when such happens.
Heres my questiion - then why are the bulls still using the deteriorating A/D as a bullish arguement. If the deteriorating A/D last beyond 16 months, then the bulls have an argument that this may be a new paradigm, but untill that happens, those type of comments have no statistical/logical substance. Remember, Im talking about mathematical probability - if it never happened before in history, then there better be a darn good arguement to support the belief of negating history - alot better arguement than its been so long(as long as it doesnt exceed 16 months).
On various threads, we also notice how both the BULLs and BEARs have taunted each other. These tauntings, of course vary from being subtle to strong. I kindly request that such be toned down. We have money in the market and these tauntings can be hurtful to some.
I at times also have cynical comments, but they are aimed at the analysts not the individual on SI. My cynicism is based on the fact that these analysts are getting paid, and in many cases they only give partial truths not the whole truth(IE: MUTUAL FUND inflows, etc.)
I am not saying that we cant go higher, nor am I promoting a BK. but what I am trying to say is to be very cautious on the long side. There are still stocks, although a smaller & smaller number, which are still moving up, for the good/nimble stock picker.
I also want to state, from my own personal experience, of all the investors/brokers I know, the only ones playing the short-side are those on SI, so there really are not that many right now, which is also substantiated by the PUT:CALL ratio.
Just wanted to express some personal views.
seeya |
