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Technology Stocks : Cascade Communications (CSCC)

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To: robert marshall who wrote (2292)2/21/1997 12:59:00 AM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen   of 3743
 
You could also say "what a year" or "what a 3 months":

What a year! CSCC underperforms the Nasdaq composite for last 60 weeks:

techstocks.com

It goes without saying that CSCC hit a new 52 week low today: a dubious distinction.

What a quarter: 3 months ago CSCC had a market cap of 6.9 Billion. Today the market cap is 2.9 Billion.

Sales increased 17% in Q4 of 1996 from Q3 of 1996, which was the same as the sales % increase from Q2 to Q3 (17%). Gross margins have remained within the historical quarterly range of 20-21% in the last few quarters.

I don't know about the rest of you, but I am left with a few conclusions: 3 months ago, the stock was obviously grossly overvalued, although I don't recall any analysts making a fuss about it then. Perhaps the analysts wanted to wait for a second 17% sales increase on a Q-Q basis to confirm the trend.

It seems to me that analysts are usually late to the party. Once there, they also tend to stay late (upgrade recommendations usually awarded after the stock has made a significant move upward). Am I being too tough on analysts? It's just that since the stock was at $70 three months ago and nothing has fundamentally changed since then except an increase in DSO and "flat" FR sales (offset by other increases, obviously), where were these guys 3 months ago???

DK

In at $41 and bleeding.
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