Yes, I comprehend the difference. But between the two, the stock price is the more important short term, at least for me. If you are an employee, you would be more concerned about the security of the business, of course. As far as fundamentals, I admit to being wrong in thinking that they would make money in Q1 because I did not anticipate the back end constraints on production. I made no projections for Q2 but continued to expect a profit above street estimates. As far as the stock price, I admit that I didn't expect to see 80, but at least I got the direction right, and thus made money. Never complain about making more than you expect, because it makes up for some of the times when you make less. <VBG>
The difference between us is that I see that there are times when things look better for awhile, and times when things look worse for awhile. Six months ago things were looking better, now they are looking worse. Six months ago the stock was rising, now it is falling. Not surprisingly, the stock seems to move in the same general direction as the changes in outlook for the company.
When will the stock bottom and start rising again? When the outlook for the company starts improving again. What will the stock price be at that point? I don't know. Will the outlook improve again? Without a doubt. What will make it improve? It could be when production cutbacks are announced. It could be when additional players bail out of the industry. It could be if MU gets converted to .18µ ahead of the Koreans. It could be if RDRAM unexpectedly takes off. It could be consumers frantically replace home computers in the last half of the year. It could be that demand for DRAM gradually catches and passes supply. But one thing is sure, and that is that inevitably something will happen that causes the outlook to improve, and that when that time comes, the stock price will rise. This is just as sure as the knowledge that when things look better and the stock rises, it will eventually fall. The trick is to be able to look objectively so that so see these subtle shifts in direction.
Carl
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