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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP
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To: bwtidal who wrote (1114)3/29/1999 2:49:00 PM
From: Bill Fischofer   of 5853
 
Re: Disruptive technologies

Actually WindowsCE is one of the more "disruptive" technologies to have been introduced in quite a while. Dismissed as a "toy" OS for handhelds, it will overtake Windows98 in the next few years as the dominant "consumer" OS. Keep an eye on it. Unless some JavaOS variant takes off real quick, it's what your "PC" circa 2003 will be running.

As someone who worked for IBM for many years, I could write volumes on their PC stumbles, but I'll restrain myself. The key is that in all the "failure" cases that Christensen and others identify, the key point is an establish company wishing to "protect" its high-margin turf against a "low-margin" threat. MSFT, INTC, and CSCO are acutely aware of this phenomenon and are determined not to fall prey to it. Obviously we won't know if they are successful because if they are still thriving ten years out there will always be another "threat" on the horizon which folks will be able to point to, but these companies have already demonstrated a nimbleness that standard business theory would suggest could not have happened. True, MSFT misjudged the internet in 1995 but then literally turned on a dime to recover. The same is happening with INTC and the sub-$1K PC. And CSCO has done the same with switching vs. routing. It is precisely because nobody has a crystal ball that investors want companies that are able to react swiftly to market changes.
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