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Strategies & Market Trends : Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe
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To: Rob Shilling who wrote (949)3/29/1999 2:54:00 PM
From: Paul Berliner  Read Replies (1) of 1301
 
The primary surplus was sharply below the IMF's condition on the previous loan of over 4%. The sad thing here is that the IMF keeps throwing more money at the problem as if it'll do anything. Russia is in essence borrowing not only from the IMF to pay GKO holders, but also borrowing from the IMF to pay the IMF themselves, i.e. 'ZAnalyzer, loan me $10 so I can pay you back the $10 I owe you.'
I don't see what's so fantastic for russian stocks in the following:

By Blair Pethel, Bridge News
Washington--Mar 29--Russia and the International Monetary Fund have reached
"broad" agreement on a plan for economic reforms that an IMF loan eventually
could support. However, the details of the reform plan still have to be worked
out, and there have been no discussions about the size of a loan or a date when
the plan could be submitted to the IMF board for approval, a fund spokesman said
today.
The 2 sides "have reached an agreement on a broad framework," the spokesman
said. "But details must still be filled in." "Contrary to some press reports,
there is no agreement on amounts, or on a possible board date," the spokesman
said.
Some news agencies have reported the program will be supported by $4.8
billion of IMF finance, and the deal will be approved within 2 months. But a
joint statement issued today in Moscow by IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus
and Russian Premier Yevgeny Primakov noted that an IMF negotiating team will go
to Russia next week for talks on the specifics of the plan.
The IMF suspended lending under its $22.6-billion Russia reforms program in
August, when Russia devalued the ruble and defaulted on some sovereign debt.
End

Wow - sounds like Camdessus' trip was real productive.
'We have some sort of deal but we have no SPECIFIC deal yet'.

I'm still staying bearish.
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