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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 221.24

-0.6%

Dec 17 3:59 PM EST

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To: Jan Crawley who wrote (47905)	3/29/1999 3:50:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (3) of 164684

Jan, it looks like you are well positioned but be careful of the upside. Amazon is making moves to expand the perception of the company from being a book seller to being the golliath of e-tail with a foot in every corner. eBay's business model is very open to competition, IMO. Their site sucks: lousy organization and few good navigation and search tools. It is a confusing mess, IMO. Amazon can step in to deliver a much better user experience. Judging form the past, I expect them to have a superior site to eBay and to capture significant market share in this category. For the next several months this could help move the stock higher. Dos it change the outlook for earnings? Not much if at all. But that doesn't matter because it will create more enthusiasm and increased gross sales numbers. How profitable is the on-line auction format for eBay, Amazon, Yahoo! and others? So far no-one has made much money at it but that has not kept eBay's stock from moving up. I think that within three year, probably much sooner, you will see Yahoo!, Lycos and others giving away on-line auctions for free or close to it. The justification will be that this will increase clicks and drive up ad revenues. Once a site like Yahoo! has established the reach, they will loose out if they don't hold customers at their site to view more pages. That will drive them to kill off the profits in the sector in order to maintain users. I think competition in this category will turn absolutely brutal. But that is not something to consider much right now . . . Amazon may go higher because of this development and the trend in the market. Be very careful shorting it until after the April-June market rally.

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