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Hi Ramsey,
I may well be off base here.... if I am, someone please correct me.... but it would be tough to do much historical study on something like that... the reason being that the mutual fund industry has only become significant -with respect to the size of the market- in the last 25 years or so... before that, there were only a handful of funds. 25 years isn't exactly a lot of history on wall street to compare against, BWDIK. Moreover, there are demographic considerations which should be taken into account, like the baby boomer thing, etc. A lot of funds are entities unto themselves, where a lot of their trading is done between funds, or families of funds... off an exchange. Also, some fund families have become loath to report their cash inflows and outflows on a regular basis.
I myself have often thought about how I could create a gauge that measures total $ flow into and out of the market. In a very -vague- general sense, I think making a liquidity index is the way to go... since this market seems to be liquidity driven. Certainly, some of that liquidity is due to mutual fund inflows.... but I would guess there are a lot of other sources for it too. I have no idea of how to go about making a liquidity index, nor what it would comprise. Just a random thought... FWIW. Talk to you later
Regards,
Frank |
