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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum
MU 230.24+2.5%Nov 26 3:59 PM EST
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To: Jerry Denkera who wrote (14)5/15/1996 8:46:00 AM
From: Bipin Prasad   of 53903
 
Thanks for the info on spot market characteristics. Based on your
info, my conclusions are:

1. Spot market is very thin
2. OEM inventory sales means that the spot price will necessarily
be below what OEMs paid for it (in periods of continuous
supply)
3. The spot price movement is an indicator of contract price
changes but not a predictor.
4. Spot prices changes are subject to the same vagaries
of fluctuation as an extremely thinly traded stock
would be. Thus they will fluctuate a lot and erratically
depending on the perception of abundance or scarcity.

That being the case and the fact that most of Micron sales is to
OEMs, I am going to use numbers supplied by them (slightly adjusted
for trend) and also use their 25% growth in unit sales.

Personally I think the collapse has already happened. The demand is
going to pick up sharply from here. I hate to bring up NT 4.0
again and again, but being in software I KNOW that NT 4.0 will be
the desktop standard. This will double the memory demand in as
little as 6 months to 1 year.

This will dramatically tilt the balance of supply and demand in
Micron's favor. No wonder OEM's cooperate in this partnering deal.
They know they will need to be on the good side of manufacturers
in less than 6 months. Think about it.

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