Burt, >>>re:Four central questions for Intel investors:<<<
<<<1) Will PC/chip revenues (not absolute numbers) per year grow going forward or have we seen the peak?<<<
The reported death of the MPU industry is premature. In the WSJ this morning in an article entitled "The Rocket Under the Tech Boom: Heavy spending by Basic Industries"
>>>Up 30% last year. Double-digit gains for each of the previous seven years. Forecast of another big increase this year....companies (in the US) are spending billions each week to automate design and production, to track sales inventory, and to share information through ever-larger computer networks, including the Internet
....It is part of a fundamental reworking of the U.S. economy. Companies that use technology wisely are finding that they work faster, cheaper and more efficiently. Companies that stumble in the computer room are all too likely to be devasted in the marketplace.<<<<
The article goes on to describe how Information Technology have transformed and kept top US companies competitive (i.e., Chevron, Merck, GM, Caterpillar, McDonald's, Wal-Mart and others.
Intuition tells me that this is only the beginning of a trend and will spread to smaller businesses and globally.
>>>2) Will Intel's non-PC ventures maintain the growth of both revenues and profits?<<<
Who knows? Anything is possible, but I doubt anyone expect significant revenues and profits from these activities. I expect Intel to use these investments to keep abreast of what's going on (KGB-like) and leverage core activities.
>>>3) Does Intel have a clean (long term) strategy for dealing with PC-chip competition?<<<
Intel is managed by intelligent grown ups with grown up mentality ( as opposed to MSFT - run by intelligent grown ups with juvenile mentality). Anything that can be humanly anticipated will be dealt with by Intel managment in the most rational manner.
>>>4) Is Intel going to be a major participant in the "PC-lookalike appliance" market(relatively inexpensive non PC devices that get email, communicate, etc).<<<
This market, by definition, is low margin, fragmented and will not generate significant revenues or profits for any first tier technology company. Sounds like this market is good for emerging technology companies (in Malaysia, Roumania, ...) to pursue.
>>>I would like to hear from others about how Intel can reclaim lost market share and absolute terms.<<<
IMO, Intel needs to maintain market share in the low-end PC market and focus on driving MPU technology and capturing the high-end information technology and telecommunications markets - as it looks like exactly what they are doing. Intel will maintain earnings growth (~25/35%) and revenue growth (~10/30%).
>>>But not every product Intel has introduced has produced substantial profits (from watches to computer boards to flash to .....)<<<
When MSFT has to give away their browser to capture a share of the market; or when you can obtain a copy of a competing OS for free from a book (Linux); or, When their next OS release (Windows NT) is running late; or, when their Internet Gateway (MSN) can't compete against the industry leader (AOL); or when you can't understand their investment in MSNBC - their stock continue to go through the roof.
But, with Intel, all their bashers have to do is mention "Cheap PC's", "Merced is late", or "Appliances are coming" and the stock tanks. IMO, it is all a matter of perception - it is a PR thing. These are things Intel can't manage. Until they can manage perception and PR better, Intel stock will sell at discount to the S&P.
I'm thinking that Craig Barrett has some understanding of these issues and will address it in some rational manner (as always).
Mary
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