Lingerfelt; ie FGI's action/ also when dayrates, utilization & earnings do -
Ken; actually my fill on FGI was having a plan and working it; gee - now who drives that home ? - matched with a little luck.
Every morning I set 10-15 limit buy/sell orders on my watch list stocks, as well as set my stops and it's basically like throwing out a fishing net. I am in & out all through the day as far as computer access goes; so, many times at the end of the day - I just pull in the net to see what I caught... FGI landed today - go figure. I knew what 3-4 stocks I wanted to buy if we blew off to any substantial degree today (RIG FLC FGI) and I honestly did not think catching FGI there was realistic. But many, many times one can catch an intra-day low... I wasn't watching the tape on it - what happened ? Someone laying on the short side - or some 10-20K sells ? Seemed to be allmost an anomaly ? - but, good to see the buying (or short covering) support is there...
An after thought here MichaelH, on CAM & WFT.
When we really turn fundamentally - as in; when we actually see rising Rig utilization, increasing dayrates and increasing orders & backlogs for the mfg/service companies - that is when I want to move/rotate more heavilly into the ''names'' like WFT & CAM. I allmost anticipate at that time, that most stocks will not look cheap to any of us who were here in the dogdays of the 'patch; but imho, ''that'' is when the names will outperform the rest of the sector. There will most likely be strong institutional inflows of ''fresh/new money'' once fundamentals actually turn.
Obviously, we are getting priced and moved here based on the forward looking expectations of the sector; and that is why I like E&P's, Integrated and some Intnl Oils for diversity and rotation ideas.
These companies ''are'' putting it in the cash register right now ! - unlike the driller & service companies who are riding the ''expectation'' wave,,,,, just food for thought as to why ''Rotation'' is a key - idea right now imho. It ''is'' inevitable that we will get some substantial retracement. When it does happen, I want diversification in the other Energy sectors. I also want the value plays and some laggards for the same reasons here...
The first retracement ''test'' is not far away imho. Anyone else sense that it's coming with the Q1 earnings reports ? Doesn't seem to hard to ''know thy enemy'' here... The Street will certainly return to the reality of utilization, dayrates and new equipment/Rig orders. The intitial reporting period for OPEC's new cut compliance will also inevitably bring a prerelease selloff imho. - just forward looking trading opps imho. The ''Street'' has been very, very predictable in this of late - big advantage to the nimble individual investor imho, - one of the few that we have <VBG>... When they move humdred's of thousands of shares in & out - they take bigger losses and pay a higher re-entry fee than we do... beat the crowd both on the way in & on the way out !
I want to beat the crowd to the party on the way out - prior to the Q1 earnings releases coming up. Rather than to be in cash and miss more upside if we do not retrace substantially; I want to rotate into the laggards, the E&P's & Integrateds for protection. Then I want to buy that dip. I'd love to see a 15% retracement in late April off of the earnings reporting. I will buy that retracement and I look for the end of Q3 to beginning of Q4 to be where we actually see better utilization - especially a big upswing in shallow water nat gas drilling as they have to be ready for the fall drawdowns - don't see 3 mild winters in a row....Doug & Big; do you Industry guys have a sense of when we will see Rig utilization turn ? |
