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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT
GSAT 56.80+0.2%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Dragonfly who wrote (3644)3/30/1999 1:43:00 PM
From: Jeff Vayda  Read Replies (1) of 29987
 
Dfly: Pretty quite on the tread - people wondering if they should throw good money after bad? There must be quite a few people who are waiting for an up swing before they get back in. I know I can wait quite some time and still lower my cost basis :-(

The painful rub of it all is that only the subscriber numbers will pull G* and I* up. G*'s numbers are 2 quarters away. For I* at least, some numbers will be coming sooner. (I dont think I* will be lending any support to G*) Any way you slice it, it will be a long hot summer.

Vman is calling around trying to get a warm tummy on the current service providers and how much they are going to back the system. I dont think he is going to get a Rah Rah report from too many of them. They may play lip service to him, but I think they have to be cool to the psychology of the market as it stands today. (They have masters to serve in the investment community and they dont want to appear too far out of touch with them.)

Quick review of some numbers: G* 12 bill minutes/yr available,
US alone ('98) has ~67 mill cellphones using 107 bill minutes/yr. Bernie sez 220K subs will cover operating costs, 1 mill subs gets G*2 paid for. Bernie also stated "high single digits" as G* pricing flexibility.

Throw in all the other factors at any number of different weightings: additions from fixed stations, extra size and weight of the current handset, extra cost of handset, reduce coverage on start up and later, CDMA advantages, reduced user minutes with cellular build out, and on and on.

Still seems solid to me.

Jeff Vayda
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