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Technology Stocks : Wi-LAN Inc. (T.WIN)
WILN 1.3900.0%Sep 18 5:00 PM EST
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To: DaveU who wrote (54)3/30/1999 2:02:00 PM
From: Hatim Zaghloul  Read Replies (1) of 16863
 
Hi Dave,

Thanks for your interest.

It is my belief that UBS are in the higher frequency products generally called local multi-point distribution systems. In general, higher frequencies are greater than 6GHz (6 billion cycles per second). These higher frequencies have serious limitations regarding the requirement for unobstructed line of sight and sensitivity to multi-path. Line of sight and multi-path affect all radio communications but the higher the frequency, the more dramatic the impact is. LMDS has an important role to play in the delivery of high speed data communications.

To understand the role of LMDS, we need to understand the other high speed offerings and their limitations. This list is meant only as a guide and gives my overall impression of the market.
1. ADSL which is a high speed service to be provided over phone lines. In the past ADSL suffered from the need for a splitter at the customer end to separate voice from data. New splitterless ADSL is coming to the market in 1999 and will increase ADSL's market share. The limitation of ADSL is the distance limitation. ADSL's data rate drops as the distance from the central office increases. This is further complicated if the phone company does not know the actual length of the copper wire.
2. Cable modems as offered by cable companies is interesting because most homes in North America have access to cable. However, not all cable systems are upgraded for two-way communications and most business parks do not have access to cable.
3. Fiber with its major advantage of very high speeds but with the limitation of not being universally available. It is ideal for downtown users.
4. LMDS which is wireless technology at frequencies greater than 25GHz. It has the advantage of rapid deployment in new areas and the limitation of cost. It is rumoured in the business that the radio section cost will not drop below $1,000 in large volumes. It is not practical for consumers. It should be used to carry information to large users like Internet service providers.
5. Wireless local loop which is wireless service at frequencies below 6GHz. It has the advantage of scalability (low initial cost), quick deployment and the potential for mobility but the limitation of limited spectrum. It is ideal for countries with no or weak infrastructure and will probably be a major player once full mobility is available. Wi-LAN's offering in this front is based on its W-OFDM technology.
6. Third generation cellular telephones which is a concept of having a single standard worldwide for high speed (approaching 2Mbps) cellular telephones. It was weakened recently by a decision not to have a single standard. It was strengthened by the settlement of the dispute between Ericsson and Qualcomm. This settlement could reduce the number of potential standards by one. 3G cellular phones will have the advantage of almost being universal but the disadvantage of usage charges. They are ideal for business users.

Other emerging technologies are talked about:
1. Wireless local area networks with their focus on connecting computers together in a singel office.
2. Wireless personal area networks with their focus on connecting an individual to devices in his vicinity.
3. Bluetooth with a target overall data rate of 700kbps which could be thought of as a radio replacement for the infra red ports on cellular phones, laptops and personal digital assistants (PDAs).
4. HomeRF with a target of connecting all the appliances together to a single controller in the home (TV or PC).

Now, a quick look at this list suggests that small companies have no chance. The fact is that we are talking about a market that is in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Ten percent of this market for wireless local loop including mobile applications is in the tens of billions and that is the target market for Wi-LAN.

I know that this is a long winded answer that is meant to give a high level understanding. I hope it will help you see the overall market. If you have specific questions based on this, do not hesitate to ask.

Hatim
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