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Technology Stocks : CMGI What is the latest news on this stock?
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To: ct who wrote (6111)3/30/1999 7:42:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (4) of 19700
 
re: cmgi

i am trading cmgi regularly; recently though i have become more cautious. the reason: good news doesn't seem to move the stock much anymore. even a recent upgrade has barely registered. the contraction in intraday price movement and volume lately suggests that some kind of breakout is imminent. from a technical point of view this may well become a last gasp to the upside, we may even see new highs. i'll sit this one out though. cmgi has become a crowded trade. everyone long this stock knows in his heart that fundamentally it's way overvalued and one day somebody will be left holding the bag. cmgi's continued success depends much less on it's managements savvy (and i do believe in their management,by & large) than on the health of the internet IPO market.
and while this market seems healthy enough judging from the rousing reception these IPO's are getting, it also seems to become ever more irrational. also, the veritable flood of internet IPO's points to two facts: 1.ever more supply will someday soon outstrip demand & 2.everybody is trying to cash in while the party still lasts.

ever since cmgi blew past 160 and i bought it for a quick trade, there was this nagging question at the back of my mind: will there still be a greater fool?

then again, should they be able to realize a gain of 7000% or more on each of their current investments within 5 years or so, their share price may well be justified. it's not as preposterous as it sounds: their return on Lycos was after all some 35000% in 2,5 years. The question really is: can they keep it up?
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