refall decline?
Well, I have two main reasons.
Reason one: sometime in the fall there historically seems to be a time when there is a lack of money coming in, a slowdown in preparation for Christmas buying, or something that regularly causes a correction. Coupled with:
Reason two: Although I personally dont think the Yr 2000 bug is as big as the media and the government make it out to be, there will be several glitches now and then. Maybe the glitches wont be any more than we have now. Maybe we'll have exactly the same number of poweroutages, retail shortages, etc, as we have now. But people will see it as proof that something awful will happen when the century (or just year if you dont think the new century begins until 01) clicks over. I think many business who dont have a Jan-Dec year have a July to June year so those things will start to be evident sometime in August I would think. Look at how the market has reacted to news this year: the smallest shortfall causes huge reaction across an industry orsometimes even industries that are not really connected. Good news causes equally brainless frantic raises. Thus the public (or mutual funds or whoever is doing the buying and selling) is acting as a mass and reacting as though the market was a whole, even with companies that are unaffected by the news of the moment. So I think that firstly financial stocks will be hit as people stop stock trading and take money out of banks, then the tech sector as businesses and individuals decide to hold off buying, upgrading, etc until the new year, and other nonessential buying will stop, causing earnings shortfalls causing a bigger than usual fall correction.
So I want to be out of margin so I can get back in again for the correction when some stocks I like are cheap.
Will I be right? We'll know sometime, thats for sure!!!!!
Fall will come.
Freeus |
