Tuesday March 30, 10:00 pm Eastern Time
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World oil demand to grow 1.8% a year through 2020 - U.S. DOE
By Tom Doggett
WASHINGTON, March 30 (Reuters) - World demand for crude oil is expected to increase an average of 1.8 percent a year over the next two decades, as demand for transportation fuel grows, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.
In its annual energy forecast to be released on Wednesday, the DOE said global oil demand would jump to 110 million barrels per day in 2020, from its current level of 75 million bpd.
''In all regions of the world, the largest increases in oil consumption are expected to result from oil's use as transportation fuel,'' the DOE said.
By 2020, transportation is forecast to account for 52 percent of world oil use, up from 44 percent in 1996.
As for world oil prices, the DOE projects a barrel of crude oil will average $13.11 in 2000; $19.25 in 2005; $21.30 in 2010, and $22.73 by 2020 in 1997 inflation-adjusted dollars.
World supplies of oil also are expected to grow, but will fall slightly short of demand over the next two decades. Oil production should reach 109.8 million bpd in 2020, compared with 74.7 million bpd this year.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is expected to grab a larger share of world oil production, accounting for 49 percent, or 53.5 million bpd, of total world oil output in 2020. Currently, OPEC accounts for 41 percent of global oil production.
Oil demand in industrialized nations is projected to increase only about 1 percent a year during the next two decades.
While industrialized countries accounted for 60 percent of oil demand in 1996, these nations will account for only about one-third of the anticipated oil demand growth through 2020.
The other two-thirds in oil demand growth, about 26 million bpd, is expected to come from developing countries.
Oil consumption in developing Asian countries, which accounted for 17 percent of world oil demand in 1996, is forecast to expand to a 22 percent market share by 2020, equal to that of the United States.
Among Asian nations, China, India and South Korea are expected to more than double their oil consumption by 2020, due to strong economic and population growth, the DOE said.
Oil demand in Central and South America should double over the forecast period, but the demand growth in the region will be slightly slower than in other developing countries.
About 40 percent of the region's growth in total oil demand is expected in Brazil, which has the largest population and economy.
Oil consumption patterns in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union are expected to continue the decline of the 1990s, which was set off by their transition to market economies.
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