John,
another (!) gap up, followed by a run to 49 after today's weakness, would be a perfect way to screw everybody that does know about it, squeezing both strong and weak shorts alike like so many tubes of toothpaste on the very last day of the calendar quarter. "Everybody knows that the funds don't want to be shown owning MU tomorrow," right? Good thing I'm short, right?
But... I'm thinking that 3/31 is gonna play out like an option expiration -- all the positioning for the next episode is done, now the MM's will take the opportunity to shake the tree and see how many shorts they can dislodge before El Dumpo Grande.
I am having the exact same premonition, only it is more like Deja Vu. I lost 20 grand on MU puts last April Fool's. I wonder if they'll be able to make a bigger fool out of me this year, or whether I'll manage to have the last laugh?
Also, about the screwy put premiums, I noticed it too (my puts are hardly gaining in value while MU tanks relentlessly) -- but I am wondering if it isn't related to the fact that the third Friday in April comes early this year. I mean there are now only 13 trading days to expiry.
Land_Lubber |
